The Los Angeles Dodgers traded multiple prospects away to receive Manny Machado for the rest of the regular season, but what will it take to make this a long-term investment?
According to this article by CBS Sports, they gave away some of their top-five MLB prospects including their No. 4, No. 27 and No. 28 ranked. For such a hefty giveaway with only 66 games left, plus the playoffs, there are two things that come to my head.
First, the Dodgers just went all in to win this year — and secondly, what will it take to keep Manny Machado long term?
Let’s start with the first thought. The NL West division at the All-Star break looks like this:
- Dodgers 53-43
- Diamondbacks 53-44
- Rockies 51-45
- Giants 50-48
- Padres 40-59
Now that does seem like a close race according to the standings, but here are my Predator Stats records based on statistical analysis, which establishes what their expected record should be based on their statistics:
- Dodgers 55.3-40.7
- Diamondbacks 49.9-47.1
- Rockies 48.4-47.6
- Giants 47.9-50.1
- Padres 41.8-57.2
The Dodgers are on pace to finish with 93.9 wins analytically, which would run away with the NL West, and would possibly allow them to compete for the best record in the National League, as well as the MLB to get home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Adding in Machado, their numbers obviously get better making it even more evident their intent to win this year, which is no surprise. With Machado, their pace increases to 95.6 wins, an increase of 1.7 wins over the final stretch of games.
Every home run of Manny Machado's Orioles career: pic.twitter.com/Exb0tpDj4q
— BMOREcenter (@BMOREcenter) July 18, 2018
Even seeing how much Machado helps the Dodgers chances this year, by giving up that many prospects, I find it hard to believe they would not be thinking long-term as an organization. So how much more would he cost the Dodgers to keep? The fact that he is so young increases his value as well as the fact he has been a durable player up to this point.
Using my Predator Projection Analytics, let’s look at his worth based on different contract lengths starting at 7 years long.
- Age 32 | 7 years – $235.11 million
- Age 33 | 8 years – $266.03 million
- Age 34 | 9 years – $295.97 million
- Age 35 | 10 years – $323.29 million.
I mean if there is any team that can fork out that money and be fine, it would be the Dodgers — but my goodness, that is a lot of money.
First off, I personally doubt that Machado would even consider signing an extension prior to the season’s end. For the year he is having, his price could very well be even higher than the numbers I have shown here, especially on the open market.
Ultimately, I do not think $300 million is out of the question for Manny Machado. He clearly strengthens the Dodgers this year and makes their postseason World Series hopes much better.
I doubt that the Los Angeles Dodgers are using him as strictly a rental and are not thinking more long term. However, if so, they better be willing to fork out a large sum of money.